Figures (10)  Tables (3)

    • Figure 1. 

      Overview of the study region.

    • Figure 2. 

      Inter-annual variability of forest fires in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces.

    • Figure 3. 

      Inter-monthly variation of forest fires in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces.

    • Figure 4. 

      Technology route.

    • Figure 5. 

      Schematic diagram of the RF.

    • Figure 6. 

      Schematic diagram of the SVM.

    • Figure 7. 

      ROC curve and AUC of LightGBM, RF, and SVM models, with parameter optimization performed using Bayesian optimization techniques: GP and TPE.

    • Figure 8. 

      Forest fire danger maps for the three models.

    • Figure 9. 

      Classification of forest fire danger levels.

    • Figure 10. 

      Summary graphs of global factors: (a) SHAP scatter plot, (b) SHAP bar graph.

    • No. Factor VIF value before
      eliminating factor      		 VIF value after
      eliminating factor
      1 Da_AVGTEM 142.109 3.859
      2 Da_MINTEM 51.681 −
      3 Da_MAXTEM 30.345 −
      4 Da_PRE 1.245 1.242
      5 Da_AVGRH 3.440 2.220
      6 Da_AVGWIN 2.609 2.420
      7 Da_MAXWIN 2.603 2.536
      8 Da_AVGPRS 3.999 3.855
      9 SSD 3.424 2.577
      10 Da_AVGGST 40.164 −
      11 Da_MAXGST 11.016 4.639
      12 Elevation 3.902 3.876
      13 Slope 1.000 1.304
      14 Aspect 1.001 1.001
      15 TWI 1.040 1.190
      16 Dis_to_railway 1.450 1.400
      17 Dis_to_road 1.382 1.390
      18 Dis_to_sett 1.458 1.459
      19 Den_pop 4.882 4.871
      20 GDP 3.811 3.806
      21 Forest 1.104 1.108

      Table 1. 

      Results of the multicollinearity analysis.

    • Model
      parameters      		 TPE-
      LightGBM      		 TPE-
      RF      		 TPE-
      SVM      		 GP-
      LightGBM      		 GP-
      RF      		 GP-
      SVM
      TP 5779 5727 5570 5705 5709 5505
      TN 8695 8633 8254 8505 8511 8213
      FP 917 979 1358 1105 1101 1399
      FN 633 685 842 707 703 907
      ACC (%) 90.3 89.6 86.3 88.7 88.7 85.6
      Precision (%) 86.3 85.4 80.4 83.8 83.8 79.7
      Recall (%) 90.1 89.3 86.8 88.9 89.0 85.9
      F1 (%) 88.2 87.3 83.5 86.3 86.3 82.7

      Table 2. 

      Performance metrics for model evaluation.

    • No. Forest fire occurrence probability Fire danger level Description of fire
      1 0−0.2 I Virtually no fire
      2 0.2−0.4 II Unlikely to occur
      3 0.4−0.6 III Possible to occur
      4 0.6−0.8 IV Prone to occur
      5 0.8−1 V Highly likely to occur

      Table 3. 

      Criteria for the classification of forest fire danger levels.