|
Anderson JR, 1982. “Acquisition of cognitive skill” Psychological Review89369–406.
Google Scholar
|
|
Anderson JR, 1990. Cognitive Psychology and its Implications (3rd ed.), Freeman.
Google Scholar
|
|
Anzai Y, 1991. “Learning and use of representations for physics expertise” In: Ericsson KA and Smith J (eds.), Toward a General Theory of Expertise, pp 64–92, Cambridge University Press.
Google Scholar
|
|
Balthasar HU, Boschi RAA and Menke MM, 1978. “Calling the shots in R and D” Harvard Business Review05−06, 151–160.
Google Scholar
|
|
Bamber EM, 1983. “Expert judgment in the audit team: A source reliability approach” Journal of Accounting Research21396–412.
Google Scholar
|
|
Bennet HL, 1983. “Remembering drink orders: The memory skill of cocktail waitresses” Human Learning2157–169.
Google Scholar
|
|
Blattberg RC and Hoch SJ, 1989. “Database models and managerial intuition: 50% model and 50% manager”. Report from the Center for Decision Research, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
Google Scholar
|
|
Bolger F and Wright G, 1992. “Reliability and validity in expert judgment” In: Wright G and Bolger F (eds.), Expertise and Decision Support, pp 47–76, Plenum.
Google Scholar
|
|
Bolger F and Wright G, 1994. “Assessing the quality of expert judgment: Issues and analysis” Decision Support Systems111–24
Google Scholar
|
|
Bolger F, Wright G, Rowe G, Gammack J and Wood R, 1989. “LUST for life: Developing expert systems for life assurance underwriting” In: Shadbolt N (ed.), Research and Development in Expert Systems VI, pp 128–139, Cambridge University Press.
Google Scholar
|
|
Bunn D, 1992. “Synthesis of expert judgment and statistical forecasting models for decision support” In: Wright G and Bolger F (eds.), Expertise and Decision Support, pp 251–268, Plenum.
Google Scholar
|
|
Camerer CF, 1981. “The validity and utility of expert judgment.” Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Chicago.
Google Scholar
|
|
Camerer CF and Johnson EJ, 1991. “The process-performance paradox in expert judgment: How can experts know so much and predict so badly?” In: Ericsson KA and Smith J (eds.), Toward a General Theory of Expertise, pp 195–217, Cambridge University Press.
Google Scholar
|
|
Casey C and Selling TI, 1986. “The effect of task predictability and prior probability disclosure on judgment quality and confidence” The Accounting Review61302–317.
Google Scholar
|
|
Catell RB, 1963. “The personality and motivation of the researcher from measurements of contemporaries and from bibliography” In: Taylor CW and Barron F (eds.), Scientific Creativity: Its Recognition and Development, pp 119–131, Wiley.
Google Scholar
|
|
Chalos P, 1985. “The superior performance of loan review committee” Journal of Commercial Bank Lending6860–66.
Google Scholar
|
|
Charness N, 1989. “Expertise in chess and bridge” In: Klahr D and Kotovsky K (eds.), Complex Information Processing: The Impact of Herbert A. Simon, pp 183–208, Erlbaum.
Google Scholar
|
|
Chase WG and Ericsson KA, 1981. “Skilled memory In: Anderson JR (ed), Cognitive Skills and their Acquisition, pp 141–189.
Google Scholar
|
|
Chase WG and Simon HA, 1973. “The mind's eye in chess” In: Chase WG (ed), Visual Information Processing, pp 215–281, Academic Press.
Google Scholar
|
|
Chi MTH, Bassok M, Lewis MW, Reimann P and Glaser R, 1987. “Self-explanations: How students study and use examples in learning to solve problems” Cognitive Science13145–182.
Google Scholar
|
|
Chi MTH, Glaser R and Rees E, 1982. “Expertise in problem solving” In: Sternberg RS (ed), Advances in the Psychology of Human Intelligence (Vol. 1), pp 1–75, Erlbaum.
Google Scholar
|
|
Chi MTH, Glaser R and Farr MJ (eds), 1988. The Nature of Expertise, Erlbaum.
Google Scholar
|
|
Christensen-Szalanski JJJ, and Bushyhead JB, 1981. “Physicians' use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance7928–935.
Google Scholar
|
|
Christensen-Szalanski JJJ, Beck DE, Christensen-Szalanski CM and Koepsell TD, 1983. “Effects of expertise and experience on risk judgments” Journal of Applied Psychology68278–284.
Google Scholar
|
|
de Groot A, 1978. Thought and Choice in Chess, Mouton. (Originally published in 1946.)
Google Scholar
|
|
Dolan JG, Bordley DR and Mushlin AI, 1986. “An evaluation of clinicians' subjective prior probability estimates” Medical Decision Making6216–223.
Google Scholar
|
|
Dowie J and Elstein A, 1988. Professional Judgement: A reader in clinical decision making, Cambridge University Press.
Google Scholar
|
|
Dube-Rioux L and Russo JE, 1988. “An availability bias in professional judgment” Journal of Behavioural Decision Making1223–237.
Google Scholar
|
|
Ebbesen E and Konecni V, 1975. “Decision making and information integration in the courts: The setting of bail” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology32805–821.
Google Scholar
|
|
Eddy DM, 1982. “Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: problens and opportunities” In: Kahneman D, Slovic P and Tversky A (eds.), Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press.
Google Scholar
|
|
Edwards W, Phillips LD, Hays WL and Goodman BC, 1968. “Probabilistic information processing systems” IEEE Transactions on Systems Science and Cybernetics4248–265.
Google Scholar
|
|
Egan DE and Schwartz BJ, 1979. “Chunking in recall of symbolic drawings” Memory and Cognition7149–158.
Google Scholar
|
|
Einhorn HJ, 1974. “Expert judgment: Some necessary conditions and an example” Journal of Applied Psychology59562–571.
Google Scholar
|
|
Ellis SH, 1973. “Structure and experience in the matching and reproduction of chess patterns.” Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Carnegie-Mellon University.
Google Scholar
|
|
Ericsson KA, 1985. “Memory skill” Canadian Journal of Psychology39188–231.
Google Scholar
|
|
Ericsson KA and Polson PG, 1988. “Memory for restaurant orders” In: Chi M, Glaser R and Farr M (eds.), The Nature of Expertise, pp 23–70, Erlbaum.
Google Scholar
|
|
Ericsson KA and Smith J, 1991. “Prospects and limits of the empirical study of expertise: An introduction” In: Ericsson KA and Smith J (eds.), Toward a General Theory of Expertise, pp 1–38, Cambridge University Press.
Google Scholar
|
|
Ericsson KA and Staszeweski J, 1989. “Skilled memory and expertise: Mechanisms of exceptional performance” In: Klahr D and Kotovsky K (eds.), Complex Information Processing: The Impact of Herbert A. Simon, pp 183–208, Erlbaum.
Google Scholar
|
|
Evans J, St BT, 1989. “Some causes of bias in expert opinion” The Psychologist2112–113.
Google Scholar
|
|
Gaeth GJ and Chanteau J, 1984. “Reducing the influence of irrelevant information on experienced decision makers” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance33263–282.
Google Scholar
|
|
Galton F, 1869. Hereditary Genius, Macmillan.
Google Scholar
|
|
Goldberg LR, 1970. “Man versus model of man: A rationale, plus some evidence, for a method of improving clinical inferences” Psychological Bulletin73422–432.
Google Scholar
|
|
Hinsley DA, Hayes JR and Simon HA, 1977. “From words to equations: Meaning and representation in algebra word problem” In: Just MA and Carpenter PA (eds.), Cognitive Processes in Comprehension, pp 89–108, Erlbaum.
Google Scholar
|
|
Holding DH, 1985. The Psychology of Chess Skill, Erlbaum.
Google Scholar
|
|
Johnson EJ, 1988. “Expertise and decision under uncertainty: Performance and process” In: Chi M, Glaser R and Farr M (eds.), The Nature of Expertise, Erlbaum.
Google Scholar
|
|
Kahneman D, Slovic P and Tversky A (eds.), 1982. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press.
Google Scholar
|
|
Katz J, 1984. “Why doctors don't disclose uncertainty” Hastings Centre Report1435–44.
Google Scholar
|
|
Kelley HP, 1964. “Memory abilities: A factor analysis” Psychometric Society Monographs111–53.
Google Scholar
|
|
Keren G, 1987. “Facing uncertainty in the game of bridge: A calibration study” Organizational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes3998–114.
Google Scholar
|
|
Levi KR, 1986. “Numerical likelihood estimates from physicians and linear models.” Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Michigan.
Google Scholar
|
|
Lichtenstein S, Fischhoff B and Phillips LD, 1982. “Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980” In: Kahneman D, Slovic P and Tversky A (eds.), Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press.
Google Scholar
|
|
McKeithen KB, Reitman JS, Rueter HH and Hirtle SC, 1981. “Knowledge organization and skill differences in computer programmers” Cognitive Psychology13307–325.
Google Scholar
|
|
Meehl PE, 1954. Clinical versus Statistical Prediction. A Theoretical Analysis and Review of the Evidence, University of Minnesota Press.
Google Scholar
|
|
Meehl PE, 1986. “Causes and effects of my disturbing little book” Journal of Personality Assessment50370–375.
Google Scholar
|
|
Milojovic JD, 1982. “Chess imagery in novice and master” Journal of Mental Imagery6125–144.
Google Scholar
|
|
Mumpower JL, Phillips LD, Renn O and Uppuluri VRR (eds.), 1987. Expert Judgment and Expert Systems, Springer-Verlag.
Google Scholar
|
|
Murphy AH and Brown BG, 1985. “A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the United States” In: Wright G (ed.), Behavioral Decision Making, Plenum.
Google Scholar
|
|
Murphy AH and Winkler RL, 1977. “Reliability of subjective probability forecasts of precipitation and temperature” Applied Statistics2641–47.
Google Scholar
|
|
Murphy GL and Wright JC, 1984. “Changes in conceptual structure with expertise: Differences between real-world experts and novices” Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition10144–155.
Google Scholar
|
|
Nagy GF, 1981. “How are personnel selection decisions made? An analysis of decision strategies in a simulated personnel selection task.” Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Kansas State University.
Google Scholar
|
|
Northcraft MA and Neale GB, 1987. “Experts, amateurs and real-estate: An anchoring and adjust perspective in property pricing decisions” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes3984–97.
Google Scholar
|
|
Oskamp S, 1965. “Overconfidence in case-study judgments” Journal of Consulting Psychology29261–265.
Google Scholar
|
|
Patel VL and Groen GL, 1991. “The general and specific nature of medical expertise: A critical look” In: Ericsson KA and Smith J (eds.), Toward a General Theory of Expertise, pp 93–125, Cambridge University Press.
Google Scholar
|
|
Reagan-Cirincione P and Rohrbaugh J, 1992. “Decision conferencing: A unique approach to the behavioral aggregation of expert judgment” In: Wright G and Bolger F (eds.), Expertise and Decision Support, pp 181–202, Plenum.
Google Scholar
|
|
Rowe G, 1992. “Perspectives on expertise in the aggregation of judgment” In: Wright G and Bolger F (eds.), Expertise and Decision Support, pp 155–180, Plenum.
Google Scholar
|
|
Saariluoma P, 1990. “Chess players' search for task relevant cues: Are chunks relevant?” In: Brogan D (ed.), Visual Search, pp 115–121, Taylor & Francis.
Google Scholar
|
|
Salthouse TA, 1984. “Effects of age and skill in typing” Journal of Experimental Psychology: General113345–371.
Google Scholar
|
|
Salthouse TA, 1985. “Anticipatory processing in transcription typing” Journal of Applied Psychology70264–271.
Google Scholar
|
|
Schaefer RE, Borcherding K and Laemmerhold C, 1977. “Consistency of future event assessments” In: Jungermann H and de Zeeuw G (eds.), Decision Making and Change in Human Affairs, pp331–345, Reidel.
Google Scholar
|
|
Schwartz S and Griffin T, 1986. Medical Thinking: The Psychology of Medical Judgment and Decision Making, Springer-Verlag.
Google Scholar
|
|
Selnes F and Troye SV, 1989. “Buying expertise, information search and problem solving” Journal of Economic Psychology10411–428.
Google Scholar
|
|
Shanteau J, Grier M, Johnson J and Berner E, 1981. “Improving decision making skills of nurses” In: ORSA-TIMS Proceedings, Houston, Texas: ORSA-TIMS.
Google Scholar
|
|
Shanteau J, 1987. “Psychological characteristics of expert decision makers” In: Mumpower JL, Renn O, Phillips LD and Uppuluri VRR (eds.), Expert Judgment and Expert Systems, Springer-Verlag.
Google Scholar
|
|
Simon HA and Chase WG, 1973. “Skill in chess” American Scientist61394–403.
Google Scholar
|
|
Sloboda J, 1976. “Visual perception of musical notation: Registering pitch symbols in memory” Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology281–16.
Google Scholar
|
|
Slovic P, 1969. “Analyzing the expert judge: A descriptive study of a stockbroker's decision processes” Journal of Applied Psychology53255–263.
Google Scholar
|
|
Smith JF and Kida T, 1991. “Heuristics and biases: Expertise and task realism in auditing” Psychological Bulletin109472–489.
Google Scholar
|
|
Stael von Holstein CS, 1971. “An experiment in probabilistic weather forecasting” Journal of Applied Meteorology10635–645.
Google Scholar
|
|
Stael von Holstein CS, 1972. “Probabilistic forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market” Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance8139–158.
Google Scholar
|
|
Teigen KH, 1994. “Variants of subjective probabilities: concepts, norms and biases” In: Wright G and Ayton P (eds.), Subjective Probability, pp 211–238, Wiley.
Google Scholar
|
|
Tyler LE, 1965. The Psychology of Human Differences, Appleton-Century-Crofts.
Google Scholar
|
|
Wagenaar WA and Keren GB, 1986. “Does the expert know? The reliability of predictions and confidence ratings in experts” In: Hollnagel E, Mancini G and Woods DD (eds.), Intelligent Decision Support in Process Environments, Springer-Verlag.
Google Scholar
|
|
Waghorn K, 1988. “Chess players' use of task-specific processes in a perceptual classification task.” Unpublished honors thesis, University of Waterloo.
Google Scholar
|
|
Wallsten TS and Budescu DV, 1983. “Encoding subjective probabilities: a psychological and psychometric review” Management Science29151–173.
Google Scholar
|
|
Whitred G and Zimmer I, 1985. “The implications of distress prediction models for corporate lending” Accounting and Finance251–13.
Google Scholar
|
|
Wright G and Bolger F (eds.), 1992. Expertise and Decision Support, Plenum.
Google Scholar
|
|
Wright G, Rowe G. Bolger F and Gammack J, 1994. “Coherence, calibration and expertise in judgmental probability forecasting” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes571–25.
Google Scholar
|
|
Yates JF and Curley SP, 1985. “Conditional distribution analysis of probabilistic forecasts” Journal of Forecasting461–73.
Google Scholar
|
