LAMIA Laboratory, French West Indies University, 97157, Pointe-à-Pitre, Guadeloupe, French West Indies; e-mails: Sebastien.Regis@univ-antilles.fr, Andrei.Doncescu@univ-antilles.fr"/> Office Surgery, 7 Rue Tah Bloudy, 97150, Marigot, Saint Martin, French West Indies; e-mail: armadadechirurgie@gmail.com"/>
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2023 Volume 38
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RESEARCH ARTICLE   Open Access    

An agent-based model of COVID-19 pandemic and its variants using fuzzy subsets and real data applied in an island environment

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  • Abstract: In this paper, we present a model of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic simulated by a multi-agent system (MAS) based on demographic data and medical knowledge. Demographic data are linked to the distribution of the population according to age and to an index of socioeconomic fragility with regard to the elderly. Medical knowledge are related to two risk factors: age and obesity. The contributions of this approach are as follows. Firstly, the two aggravating risk factors are introduced into the MAS using fuzzy sets. Secondly, the worsening of disease caused by these risk factors is modeled by fuzzy aggregation operators. The appearance of virus variants is also introduced into the simulation through a simplified modeling of their contagiousness. Using real data from inhabitants of an island in the Antilles (Guadeloupe, FWI), we model the rate of the population at risk which could be critical cases, if neither social distancing nor barrier gestures are respected by the entire population. The results show that hospital capacities are exceeded. The results show that hospital capacities are exceeded. The socioeconomic fragility index is used to assess mortality and also shows that the number of deaths can be significant.
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  • Cite this article

    Sébastien Regis, Olivier Manicom, Andrei Doncescu. 2023. An agent-based model of COVID-19 pandemic and its variants using fuzzy subsets and real data applied in an island environment. The Knowledge Engineering Review 38(1), doi: 10.1017/S0269888923000036
    Sébastien Regis, Olivier Manicom, Andrei Doncescu. 2023. An agent-based model of COVID-19 pandemic and its variants using fuzzy subsets and real data applied in an island environment. The Knowledge Engineering Review 38(1), doi: 10.1017/S0269888923000036
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RESEARCH ARTICLE   Open Access    

An agent-based model of COVID-19 pandemic and its variants using fuzzy subsets and real data applied in an island environment

  • Received: 11 June 2021
  • Revised: 10 October 2022
  • Accepted: 17 November 2022
  • Published online: 06 March 2023
The Knowledge Engineering Review  38,  2023, 38(1)  |  Cite this article

Abstract: Abstract: In this paper, we present a model of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic simulated by a multi-agent system (MAS) based on demographic data and medical knowledge. Demographic data are linked to the distribution of the population according to age and to an index of socioeconomic fragility with regard to the elderly. Medical knowledge are related to two risk factors: age and obesity. The contributions of this approach are as follows. Firstly, the two aggravating risk factors are introduced into the MAS using fuzzy sets. Secondly, the worsening of disease caused by these risk factors is modeled by fuzzy aggregation operators. The appearance of virus variants is also introduced into the simulation through a simplified modeling of their contagiousness. Using real data from inhabitants of an island in the Antilles (Guadeloupe, FWI), we model the rate of the population at risk which could be critical cases, if neither social distancing nor barrier gestures are respected by the entire population. The results show that hospital capacities are exceeded. The results show that hospital capacities are exceeded. The socioeconomic fragility index is used to assess mortality and also shows that the number of deaths can be significant.

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    Cite this article
    Sébastien Regis, Olivier Manicom, Andrei Doncescu. 2023. An agent-based model of COVID-19 pandemic and its variants using fuzzy subsets and real data applied in an island environment. The Knowledge Engineering Review 38(1), doi: 10.1017/S0269888923000036
    Sébastien Regis, Olivier Manicom, Andrei Doncescu. 2023. An agent-based model of COVID-19 pandemic and its variants using fuzzy subsets and real data applied in an island environment. The Knowledge Engineering Review 38(1), doi: 10.1017/S0269888923000036
    shu

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