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This is accepted manuscript by the journal but prior to copy-editing or proofing. It can be cited using the author(s), article title, journal title, year of online publication, and DOI. It will be replaced by the final typeset version, which may therefore contain changes. The DOI will be remain the same.

ARTICLE   Open Access    

The potential distribution of tree heath (Erica arborea L.) in Tigrai

  • 1.

    University of Adigrat, P.O. Box 50, Adigrat, Ethiopia

  • 2.

    Department of Land Resources Management and Environmental Protection, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia

  • 3.

    WeForest organisation, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

  • 4.

    Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), Postboks 5003, INA, 1432, Ås, Norway

  • 5.

    Department of Geography, Ghent University, Krijgslaan 281(S8), 9000 Ghent, Belgium

  • 6.

    cE3c- Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes/Azorean Biodiversity Group, CHANGE – Global Change and Sustainability Institute, School of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of the Azores, Rua Capitão João d´Ávila, Pico da Urze, 9700-042 Angra do Heroísmo, Azores, Portugal

  • 7.

    Ethiopian Forestry Development, Mekelle Centre, Mekelle, Ethiopia

  • 8.

    Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-food and Forest System, University of Tuscia, Via S. Camillo de Lellis snc, 01100, Viterbo, Italy

More Information

  • Tree heath is one of the rare plant species facing a drastic population decline

    Maxent performance was excellent (AUC > 0.9) in predicting the potential distribution of tree heath

    The current potential area coincides with that modeled by Maxent and ArcGIS

    The distribution of E. arborea was highly associated with cold temperature (i.e. high altitude) and rainfall

    Under RCP8.5 in 2070, the suitable habitat range of Erica will shrink by 54%

  • Tree heath (Erica arborea L.) is a rare and endangered native tree species that is facing an incessant population decline due to climatic and anthropogenic factors. The objective of this study was to analyse the impacts of future climate change on the potential distribution of the species in the alpine areas of Tigrai. A species distribution modelling using Maxent was employed to predict the potentially suitable habitat for the species under two future climatic scenarios. The model was constructed using 58 sets of presence data collected from five main forest areas of the region and 11 environmental predictors. The results revealed that altitude, precipitation in the warmest quarter, distance from the sea, aspect, precipitation in the driest quarter and precipitation in the wettest quarter were the main factors influencing the distribution of E. arborea. The distribution of E. arborea was highly associated with cold temperature (high elevation) and rainfall. E. arborea is sensitive to temperature fluctuations (bio7). The current suitable habitats of E. arborea were restricted within 2097 km2. The highly suitable habitats for future distribution were the Irob, Atsibi, Emba Alaje, Endamokhoni, Ofla and Tsegede highlands of Tigrai. Under RCP8.5 in 2070, the suitable habitat range of Erica will shrink by 54%. Therefore, in situ and ex situ conservation interventions should be introduced to save the rare species in the Tigrai highlands.
    Graphical Abstract

  • Cite this article

    Berhe DH, Tefera AS, Gidey T, Retta AN, Negussie A, et al. 2024. The potential distribution of tree heath (Erica arborea L.) in Tigrai. Tropical Plants doi: 10.48130/tp-0024-0045
    Berhe DH, Tefera AS, Gidey T, Retta AN, Negussie A, et al. 2024. The potential distribution of tree heath (Erica arborea L.) in Tigrai. Tropical Plants doi: 10.48130/tp-0024-0045
    shu

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Important Notice

This is accepted manuscript by the journal but prior to copy-editing or proofing. It can be cited using the author(s), article title, journal title, year of online publication, and DOI. It will be replaced by the final typeset version, which may therefore contain changes. The DOI will be remain the same.

ARTICLE   Open Access    

The potential distribution of tree heath (Erica arborea L.) in Tigrai

  • 1.

    University of Adigrat, P.O. Box 50, Adigrat, Ethiopia

  • 2.

    Department of Land Resources Management and Environmental Protection, Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia

  • 3.

    WeForest organisation, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

  • 4.

    Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), Postboks 5003, INA, 1432, Ås, Norway

  • 5.

    Department of Geography, Ghent University, Krijgslaan 281(S8), 9000 Ghent, Belgium

  • 6.

    cE3c- Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes/Azorean Biodiversity Group, CHANGE – Global Change and Sustainability Institute, School of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of the Azores, Rua Capitão João d´Ávila, Pico da Urze, 9700-042 Angra do Heroísmo, Azores, Portugal

  • 7.

    Ethiopian Forestry Development, Mekelle Centre, Mekelle, Ethiopia

  • 8.

    Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-food and Forest System, University of Tuscia, Via S. Camillo de Lellis snc, 01100, Viterbo, Italy

  • Received: 08 June 2024
  • Revised: 22 October 2024
  • Accepted: 24 October 2024
    • First-online: 07 November 2024
Tropical Plants  Article in press  ()  |  Cite this article

Abstract: Tree heath (Erica arborea L.) is a rare and endangered native tree species that is facing an incessant population decline due to climatic and anthropogenic factors. The objective of this study was to analyse the impacts of future climate change on the potential distribution of the species in the alpine areas of Tigrai. A species distribution modelling using Maxent was employed to predict the potentially suitable habitat for the species under two future climatic scenarios. The model was constructed using 58 sets of presence data collected from five main forest areas of the region and 11 environmental predictors. The results revealed that altitude, precipitation in the warmest quarter, distance from the sea, aspect, precipitation in the driest quarter and precipitation in the wettest quarter were the main factors influencing the distribution of E. arborea. The distribution of E. arborea was highly associated with cold temperature (high elevation) and rainfall. E. arborea is sensitive to temperature fluctuations (bio7). The current suitable habitats of E. arborea were restricted within 2097 km2. The highly suitable habitats for future distribution were the Irob, Atsibi, Emba Alaje, Endamokhoni, Ofla and Tsegede highlands of Tigrai. Under RCP8.5 in 2070, the suitable habitat range of Erica will shrink by 54%. Therefore, in situ and ex situ conservation interventions should be introduced to save the rare species in the Tigrai highlands.

    Acknowledgments

    • The authors acknowledge WeForest for provision of occurrence data and the Rufford Foundation for financial support (Code: 10f54f1).

    Author contributions

    • All authors have participated in the conception and design of the research, or in the formal analysis and interpretation of the data; drafting the article or revising it critically for important content and approval of the final version of the manuscript for publication.

    Data availability

    • The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

    Conflict of interest

    • The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

    Supplementary Information

    • accompanies this paper at (XXXXXX)

    Dates

    • Received 8 June 2024; Accepted 24 October 2024; Published online xxxxxx

    Highlights

    • Tree heath is one of the rare plant species facing a drastic population decline

      Maxent performance was excellent (AUC > 0.9) in predicting the potential distribution of tree heath

      The current potential area coincides with that modeled by Maxent and ArcGIS

      The distribution of E. arborea was highly associated with cold temperature (i.e. high altitude) and rainfall

      Under RCP8.5 in 2070, the suitable habitat range of Erica will shrink by 54%

    Supplementary information
    Rights and permissions
    • Copyright: © 2024 by the author(s). Published by Maximum Academic Press on behalf of Hainan University. This article is an open access article distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Figure (7)  Table (3)
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    Cite this article
    Berhe DH, Tefera AS, Gidey T, Retta AN, Negussie A, et al. 2024. The potential distribution of tree heath (Erica arborea L.) in Tigrai. Tropical Plants doi: 10.48130/tp-0024-0045
    Berhe DH, Tefera AS, Gidey T, Retta AN, Negussie A, et al. 2024. The potential distribution of tree heath (Erica arborea L.) in Tigrai. Tropical Plants doi: 10.48130/tp-0024-0045
    shu

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