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Heterogenous distribution of crops, feed and livestock across China has halted the circulation of nutrients within the agricultural system and is responsible for massive nutrient losses[1, 2]. Generated livestock manure exceeded optimal crop requirements in 30% and 50% of over 2 300 studied counties when there was improved recycling of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in the food chain, repectively[2]. Most of these counties are located in southern and coastal areas, whereas there is a deficit of livestock manure in northern and western China. Such heterogenous distribution of crop-livestock production led to 4.0 Tg manure N and 0.9 Tg manure P[2], which are economically impossible to recycle and will end up in the surrounding environment. In addition, about 40% of feed protein consumed by domestic livestock production relied on importation, putting China’s livestock production supply at high risk in the post pandemic world[3]. Hence, China is facing the twin issues of too many manure nutrients but too little feed nutrients simultaneously. Such mismatch of feed protein demand and manure nutrient production is more severe at the regional level due to the heterogenous distribution of crops, feed and livestock within China, which may further impact sustainable livestock production.
Heterogenous distribution of crop-livestock production sites has also led to region-specific conservation activities. For example, southern China has suffered from severe water pollution, resulting from intensive watercourse and livestock production, leading to lower capacities for crop nutrient uptake[4]. Hence, the central government initiated the south-to-north pig transfer project in which southern farms were closed and northern ones established to effectively manage water pollution[5]. This will, however, increase ammonia emissions in northern China, a region already suffering from high PM2.5 levels that are in part due to ammonia emissions generated from livestock production[6, 7].
Recently, treatment and the recycling of manure have received greater attention from the public and policymakers. The central government has tightened environmental regulations on livestock manure management, aiming to promote the recycling of manure to reduce losses[8]. New regulations require manure to be treated for parasites, e. coli, flies and mosquitos prior to field application. However, this policy has overlooked the possible increase of ammonia emissions from this mandatory manure processing. Increasing ammonia emissions may have large impacts on the quality and biodiversity richness of plants in some protected and ecologically sensitive regions, contradicting the newly released ecological protection and restoration polices by the National Development and Reform Commission[9].
Current environmental regulations on livestock manure treatment overlook environmental risk as well as region-specific requirements and conditions. Treatment and circular manure systems across different regions are both necessary, but China lacks technologies and relevant system designs, despite a long history of manure application. Lessons learned abroad, where there is oftentimes less heterogeneity of crop-livestock production, may be difficult to adapt to China. For example, in the Netherlands, a country with high livestock density and a surplus of nutrients, manure recycling and processing is far-reaching and well developed. Around 25% of its annually produced manure is exported to neighboring countries after being heated at 70 °C for one hour[10]. However, such transregional transportation costs could contribute up to 10% of total production costs in livestock farms in the Netherlands[11]. In China, the lower profitability of livestock production and longer transportation distances limit the possibility of transnational or trans-provincial transportation of manure, especially when large surpluses of manure are located in South China with deficits more common in the Northeast[2]. Lessons and technology systems from the Netherlands are difficult to adapt to China, particularly given the recent controversial ban of agricultural production due to ammonia emissions in protected regions in the Netherlands[12].
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The criteria used in this study included soil-bearing capacity, local livestock feed self-sufficiency rate and ecosystem vulnerability. The soil-bearing rate refers to the ratio of total excretion of N by livestock and humans as well as the N withdrawal of harvested crops. In the present study, the soil-bearing capacity was estimated based on the NUFER (NUtrient flow in Food chains, Environment and Resources use) model, which calculates all nutrients for each city. The equation used to calculate soil bearing capacity was:
$ N \;soil=\frac{N\; human \;manure+N \;livestock\; manure}{{{N}}\;plant \;uptake+N\;grass} $ (1) Where N soil is soil bearing capacity, N human manure is the N content from human manure (tonnes N yr−1), N livestock manure is the N content from livestock manure (tonnes N yr−1), N plant uptake is N content taken by plants (tonnes N yr−1) and N grass is the N content taken by grass. The estimated soil bearing capacity was summarized in Fig 1. Jin et al. (2020) claimed that 2 was the threshold value for the soil-bearing capacity in China, which means areas with values higher than 2 were considered low soil-bearing capacity[2]. Across China, 19% of the total area was lower than 2 and considered as having high soil-bearing capacity. Conversely, areas higher than 2 were considered as having low soil-bearing capacity.
The feed self-sufficiency rate refers to the ratio of domestically consumed feed supplied by domestic producers. Local livestock feed self-sufficiency rate was estimated based on livestock consumption and feed production. The equation used was:
$ N\; ratio=\frac{N \;total \;cons-{N}\;imported +{N}\;exported}{{N}\;total\; cons} $ (2) Where N ratio is livestock feed self-sufficiency rate and N total cons is the total N consumption for each category of livestock (sheep, cattle, pig, poultry, horse, rabbit, mule and donkey). N imported is feed N imported from other areas. N exported is feed N exported to other areas. The distribution of livestock feed self-sufficiency rate across China is shown in Fig 2. The present study designated 0.7 as the threshold value, and values higher than 0.7 were defined as high livestock feed self-sufficiency rates. As seen in Fig 2, high livestock feed self-sufficiency rates (exceeding 0.7) were mainly located in northern and western China China.
Ammonia emissions considered here include NH3 from crop and animal production. The amount of total ammonia emissions was estimated by the NUFER model (Fig 3). The SDGs report, EU SDG index scores and ammonia data are reported for each country. Using this data, the relationship between SDG index scores and ammonia emissions data was established through multiple linear regression analysis. The statistical model (R2 = 0.91, n = 23) used was:
$ {\rm{Ammonia }}= -1.4{\rm{Score}} + 104.9 $ (3) Where Ammonia is ammonia emission per agricultural land (kg ha−1) and Score is the SDG index score. SDGs report designated a score of 60 as the threshold for European countries, and this present study assumes the European standard as the corresponding limit for China. Therefore, this statistical modeling can provide the ammonia threshold value (31 kg ha−1) for the designated 60 score. As seen in Fig 3, higher ammonia emissions (higher than 31 kg ha−1) were found in southeastern regions.
The total land area of China was divided into 3 regions, each of which in turn contains two or more ecosystem statuses (Fig 4): regions (Region I) with high ammonia emissions, low soil-bearing capacity and low livestock feed self-sufficiency rates; regions (Region II) with low ammonia emissions, low soil-bearing capacity and low livestock feed self-sufficiency rates; and regions (Region III) with low ammonia emissions and high soil-bearing capacity. This process was compiled in ArcGIS 10.6 in which areas were selected by overlaying different criteria layer (ecosystem status layers).
Bai Z, Wang X, Wu X, Wang W, Liu L, et al. 2021. China requires region-specific manure treatment and recycling technologies. Circular Agricultural Systems 1: 1 doi: 10.48130/CAS-2021-0001 |